Neil Abercrombie, center, welcomes sign-holding support alongside a
Big Island highway from UA Local 675 business manager Reggie
Castanares, right, and other friends, from left, State Sen. Dwight Takamine,
resident George Yokoyama and Hawaii County prosecutor Jay Kimura.
The former Congressman see economic and education improvements as governor.

What’s the bottom line for the foreseeable state economy?

The unionized plumber simply wants to know: If he’s on the bench, when’s the next call? For one still on the job, is there another one waiting?

Business Manager Reggie Castanares asked if Haaheo 675 could nail down as much of the tangibles known that would help clarify how the economy could be faring.

First, look at our present situation. Local 675 has averaged roughly 200 on the bench monthly over the last two years. That’s about 14% of our actives, a number lower than most other locals, which are experiencing 20% to 45%. That’s still not comforting if you’re on the bench, surely.

So who out there is trying to remedy the job losses? State lawmakers the past two sessions kept CIPs at the $1 billion level, and in the just completed session boosted the CIP by $4.2 billion for the next biennium. Meantime President Obama’s federal stimulus for Hawaii is also fueling a slight comeback, though much went for infrastructure improvements.

The various counties have likewise acted on sizeable CIP budgets, not just as “catchup” but aimed at returning hundreds back to work.

Construction is always the “weathervane” for any economy, the stimulus that powers other sectors back into activity.

One normally supposes Hawaii’s insularity would not attract national retailers. Thank Sears Roebuck for breaking that image with its first island outlet on the eve of Pearl Harbor. Since then and over the past seven decades dozens have found the isles a business haven, a few since gone but often quickly replaced.

The mainland states will always be the primary source for visitors. By the early 80s Waikiki and other outlying resorts soon drew an almost unbroken surge of folks from Japan. That has slowed momentarily due to a weakened domestic economy. However, another giant from Asia could dwarf in numbers of both the mainland and Japan: mainland China. Hawaii is a natural market for Asian visitors, given our highly visible, friendly multi-cultural heritages.

We haven’t ignored the impact of the high number of business and home foreclosures, due mainly to faulty bank credit practices. That more than any other factor severely depressed commerce and resulted in record unemployment. Housing inventory is showing slight movement and realtors foresee a gradual upsurge by next spring as supply thins. That should encourage new starts across the state.

Hawaii’s residential market has no parallel as exemplified by the state Department of Hawaiian Home Land, whose constitutional role is housing “caretaker” for the indigenous populace. The shift to masterplanned communities using part of its lands for privately-run mixed use enterprises moved DHHL over to the “black” side of the money ledger.

Viewed in a long-term perspective, DHHL’s new autonomy brightens the outlook for community developers like A&B Development and others. The land use changes being petitioned, when granted, will translate to a looming renaissance for housing. On Oahu, among developers awaiting the changes, are those with major plans for Laie and Koa Ridge in Mililani, and the Maui Lani complex in Kahului. Projects of their dimension pave the way for making commercial and public facilities a priority once again.

Also in the private realm, Kamehameha Schools plans early groundbreaking on a $118 million redo of its middle school campus on Kapalama Heights and a $80 million Life Sciences Research complex in Kaka’ako. It will be home for bioscienceoriented public and private companies next to, coincidentally, the John Burns UH Medical School.

Sectors in which ingenuity is exerting key roles challenging traditional modes are solar and green building, both viewed as natural additions in an almost unchanging climate. In that regard Local 675’s leadership has taken certain initiatives that could provide long-term economic benefits for Hawaii, as noted in several stories in this issue.

So how to summarize all this? Through the mists of the current gloom, there are, no doubt, real forces driving a change for the local economic climate. We who have experienced such droughts before have learned that patience will have its reward. We believe change is just around the corner.